TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/021290/0212005.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5.9 KB | 121 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 42

MIDDLE EAST

Exodus to the Promised Land


A record flood of Soviet immigrants delights Israel, but Arabs
fear that the newcomers will be settled in the West Bank


    Jetliners from Europe roar into Israel's Ben-Gurion
International Airport almost every day, delivering thousands
of Soviet Jews to their new homeland. The immigrants trudge
wearily into the terminal, to be met by whirling circles of
young people from the Orthodox B'nai Akiva movement who are
singing and dancing their welcome. Then, in the coming days,
in an exercise they are only too familiar with from life in the
Soviet Union, the newcomers form long lines outside the office
of the Absorption Ministry. When they reach the heads of the
queues, they receive instructions on how to sign up for a rent
allowance, where to send their children to school and other
quotidian details.

    The influx, which began rising last year, may signal the
largest wave of immigration to the state of Israel since the
years immediately after its founding in 1948. Last year 12,923
arrived from the Soviet Union; this year the government expects
between 70,000 and 100,000, and some Israeli officials estimate
that up to 700,000 Soviet Jews might make aliyah, the "ascent"
to Israel, over the next three to five years. The prospect
fills Israeli leaders with joy: immigration has slumped, and
in some recent years it has been equaled and possibly surpassed
by emigration. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir spoke for many of
his fellow right-wing politicians when he said, "Big immigration
requires Israel to be big as well." The Arab world is reacting
with concern and anger.

    Traditionally, most Jews who managed to obtain Soviet exit
visas went to the U.S. -- 183,679 over the past 15 years. But
as part of his reforms, President Mikhail Gorbachev is
permitting much freer emigration than his country has ever
seen. One of the unpleasant side effects of glasnost has been
the rapid rise of anti-Semitism and right-wing Russian
nationalism, which adds impetus to Jewish departures. A bill
now before the parliament in Moscow will remove almost all
limits on citizens who want to leave the country. At the same
time, citing rising costs of resettlement and the need to deal
fairly with other nationalities, Washington has put a ceiling
of 50,000 on the number of Soviet refugees it will admit this
year. Said the Soviet Ambassador to Jordan, Alexander Zinchuk,
"When we opened our door, they closed theirs." The result is
an exodus to Israel.

    Arab capitals, aware of the implications of the new
statistics, are warning of higher tension and instability in
the Middle East. Some of them hint at Soviet-American
collusion; most assume that Israeli hard-liners will count on
immigrants to help tighten their grip on the occupied
territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. President
Saddam Hussein of Iraq called the arrivals "a catastrophe
befalling the Arab world." The government-run Egyptian daily
al-Ahram was equally impassioned. "This is a blatant invasion,"
one of the paper's columnists said, blaming "American and
Soviet strategies" that put the rights of Israelis above those
of Palestinians. Jordanian Prime Minister Mudar Badran appeared
on television last week to ask the Kremlin to "stop the
emigration until peace has been established" and suggested a
joint Arab mission to Moscow.

    Taken aback by mounting outrage among the Arabs, Moscow has
tried to limit political damage by shifting attention from
Jewish emigration in general to the narrower issue of the
settlement of Soviet Jews in the occupied West Bank. In Moscow
First Deputy Foreign Minister Yuli Vorontsov told Israel's
consular representative, "We oppose any use of citizens leaving
the Soviet Union to push Palestinians off land belonging to
them." Israel's actions, he said, "are likely to cause serious
harm to peace in the Middle East." Another Deputy Foreign
Minister, Gennadi Ta rasov, flew to Tunis to reiterate those
views to the Palestine Liberation Organization.

    Nonsense, retorted the Israelis. Not only are immigrants
free to choose where they will live, officials say, but in the
past five years, only 1,397 have taken up residence in the West
Bank (total population: over 1 million Arabs and nearly 80,000
Israelis), and of the 12,923 Soviet Jews who arrived last year,
only 138 have settled there. Most immigrants prefer urban
living and are not eager to expose themselves to the dangers
of life on Israel's frontier. Even if they were willing to,
there is a chronic shortage of housing. Of the 25,000 new
apartments planned for immigrants to Israel in 1990 (expected
to cost $1 billion), only a few hundred will be located in the
occupied areas. One reason: Finance Minister Shimon Peres, the
Labor Party leader, prepares the budget and does not share his
Likud coalition partners' enthusiasm for such settlements.

    If so few Soviet Jews have moved to the West Bank, what is
the fuss about? The vital issue is the overall growth of Israel
as a regional power. As Shamir put it, "In five years we won't
be able to recognize this country. Everything will change,
everything will be bigger, stronger." The Arab states correctly
read this to mean that Israel is counting on the surge of
immigration to ensure its domination of its neighbors for
decades to come. No matter how clearly the Arabs see that
threat, their pressure is unlikely to force Gorbachev to choke
off Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union. The future
success of perestroika will depend heavily on economic and
technical assistance from the West, and part of the fee
Gorbachev will have to pay for such help is to provide an open
door for those of his countrymen who want to leave.


By Bruce W. Nelan. Reported by Ann Blackman/Moscow and Robert
Slater/ Jerusalem.